Polls Are Closed in India’s Election: What Happens Next?

Polls Are Closed in India’s Election: What Happens Next?

After 39 days of polling involving as many as 900 million voters, balloting in India’s vast parliamentary election came to a close on Sunday, starting a countdown to the announcement of final results on Thursday.

The first batch of exit polls predicted that Narendra Modi, the prime minister, would return to power. According to five different polls released by Indian media organizations Sunday night, Mr. Modi’s party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, or B.J.P., and its allies were forecast to win a majority of seats in the lower house of Parliament.

The Indian National Congress, the leading opposition party, seemed to have done marginally better than its stunning defeat in the last elections in 2014, but it remained a distant second to Mr. Modi’s alliance. Most of the exit polls predicted Mr. Modi’s party and its allies would win about 290 to 300 seats in the 545-seat lower house, which chooses the prime minister.

Though many Indians have complained about rising unemployment and despite accusations that the B.J.P.’s Hindu-first conservative creed is putting Muslims and other minorities at risk, Mr. Modi’s popularity remains vast, particularly among India’s Hindu majority. Many Indians credit him with programs that have helped the poor and cut through red tape and corruption.

Exit polls will start being released soon after the polls close Sunday evening, but the official results will not be released until Thursday. In the meantime, the surveys will drive big headlines in the Indian news media that either the B.J.P. or Congress — or both parties — will seize on as evidence of impending victory.

“In the majority of the cases, exit polls have depicted the true picture,’’ said Josukutty Cheriantharayil Abraham, an assistant professor of political science and director of the survey research center at the University of Kerala. “It may not be correct in terms of the number of seats or vote percentage, but it could definitely show the trends, who is likely to win and lose. In the past, that’s been true for the majority of the cases, but there are cases it has gone wrong.”

It also bears remembering that this is a parliamentary election — it’s about parties, not a simple choice between Mr. Modi and Rahul Gandhi, president of the opposition party. Local issues and rivalries always loom large in Indian elections. And deal-making with smaller parties organized around region or identity may yet play a big role in determining who will become prime minister.

The vote itself has taken more than five weeks, conducted entirely on hundreds of thousands of computerized voting machines that were hauled from state to state across India’s vast territory.

But the official counting will take just part of the day on Thursday, because the totals are already noted in the voting machines themselves. The votes will be analyzed, and in some cases verified against printed ballot copies generated by each voting machine, starting at 8 a.m. on Thursday. The official results are expected to be announced around noon local time.

It’s very possible that the B.J.P. will not win 272 or more out of 543 parliamentary seats being voted on this year. If that happens, it will come down to deal-making to form a coalition.

“Every leader of a major regional front knows that he or she might be able to provide the seats that will put the party over the top,” said Milan Vaishnav, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. “Many are waiting by the phone should their number be called on May 23.”

Here are three of the most influential regional parties waiting for that call.

  • Bahujan Samaj: The party counts Dalits, or low-caste Indians, as its core constituency. Mayawati, the party’s leader, has not announced whom she would back in a coalition scenario, though many believe she is amenable to the B.J.P. if the party offers her a senior role in the government.

  • Telangana Rashtra Samiti: Based in Telangana, a state in southern India, the party has no regional political rivals and is likely to win around 17 seats. The party’s leader, K. Chandrashekhar Rao, has already announced that it would join an alliance under the right terms.

  • Biju Janata Dal: A powerful party in Odisha, a state in eastern India, the B.J.D. faces competition from the B.J.P. on its home turf. It has allied with the B.J.P. before, but may think twice if its political independence is threatened.

For the first time, female voters are expected to cast as many as half the total ballots — and perhaps more. Given that officials expect up to 900 million total votes nationwide, that’s a huge number. But more important, it means that Indian women’s votes will at last be proportional to their numbers — even if they are not yet fairly represented in the number of parliamentary seats they hold.

[Read about how female candidates have struggled in India’s long election season.]

Both in the number of female voters, and in total turnout across the country, the 2019 elections are expected to set records, further expanding India’s role as the world’s largest democracy. Watch here for updates on turnout numbers as they are announced.

Violence has almost always played a role in Indian elections, whether between parties or gangs, or on a larger scale in the form of communal violence between religious or caste groups.

[Our reporters visited a village in West Bengal State where homes were burned over sectarian tensions.]

This election has been relatively peaceful compared with previous ones. But since voting began last month, one person has been killed and several candidates have been attacked, among other clashes between supporters of various parties, according to local news reports.

The prime minister spent the last night of the election meditating in a remote Himalayan cave.

At Kedarnath Temple in the northern state of Uttarakhand, Mr. Modi honored the Hindu god Shiva with a traditional offering of milk, honey, clarified butter and curd. The ceremony is believed to help to achieve goals and defeat enemies.

The shrine’s chief priest told Indian news channels that he had blessed Mr. Modi with at least three terms as prime minister and a Nobel Prize.

On Twitter, Mr. Modi shared photographs of the “majestic” mountains and of himself praying at the temple, which was built in the eighth century and sits almost 12,000 feet above sea level. The Uttarakhand B.J.P. also posted images of Mr. Modi, dressed in a saffron robe, meditating in a nearby cave. (He was reported to still have Wi-Fi as part of a portable prime minister’s office.)

Mr. Modi meditated for 17 hours, the Indian news media reported, emerging Sunday morning to visit another shrine, Badrinath, before returning to New Delhi in the afternoon.

Political opponents said Mr. Modi had violated election rules by speaking to the news media at Kedarnath after the end of the campaign period. At least one party, the All-India Trinamool Congress, complained to the Election Commission.

Jeffrey Gettleman, Ayesha Venkataraman and Suhasini Raj contributed reporting.

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